US Green Card Backlog: 1 Million Indians Face 179-Year Wait

In the US employment-based green card backlog, almost one million Indians may have to wait decades or even generations to get their green card. The estimated wait for an Indian professional to join the employment-based immigration queue in 2026 is 179 years for EB-2 and 38 years for EB-3, according to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), while the estimated wait for an EB-1 is four to five years.

Even as the United States heavily depends on the skilled foreign workforce in technology, healthcare, engineering, and research, the findings underscore the tremendous backlog of green cards for Indians and their families.

Nearly 1 Million Indians Are in the Green Card Backlog

The NFAP analysis found that as of December 2025, 996,599 Indians were estimated to be waiting in the first three employment-based preference categories. This is about 79% of the total estimated backlog of 1.26 million for EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3.

The Indian backlog can be segmented in general into 3 categories:

Especially notable is the size of the EB-2 queue. This category saw over 731,000 Indians stuck in the queue, forming the bulk of India's employment-based green card backlog.

The backlog has also grown significantly over the last few years. The total backlog for India in all three categories of EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 grew by 161,344 (19.3%) between April 2020 and December 2025. The EB-3 backlog grew significantly, by over 50% over the same time period, and the EB-2 queue also grew substantially.

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Why Could Indian Applicants Face a 179-Year Wait?

Each of the 179 years does not imply that each and every Indian applicant would wait for 179 years for a green card. Instead, it is an estimate based on the size of the backlog, the number of visas available each year, and the rules for employment-based immigration.

The calculation shows how much of a shortage of green cards for Indian applicants.

There are two big elements of U.S. immigration law that are central to the issue.

1. Annual Employment-Based Green Card Limit

Employment-based immigrant visas are capped by U.S. immigration law. The statutory framework includes a preference level of employment, which is available globally, and the number of visas is set at approximately 140,000 per year, including dependents that are eligible to be included.

Congress set the limit in 1990, and the NFAP says it has fallen behind the magnitude of the modern American economy and the need for highly skilled foreign workers.

The following are the current fiscal-year calculations that show the broader framework. The US Department of State has set a worldwide employment-based preference limit of 186,317 for FY2026, which corresponds to the statutory provisions and further numbers available in the immigration system.

The total number, however, is spread across various employment-based categories and countries, and does not represent the same number of green cards that are available to Indian applicants.

2. The 7% Per-Country Limit

The per-country limit is the second big factor.

US immigration law establishes a 70% limit on the number of immigrants from any one country who are eligible for immigration under a preference category (with some exceptions and rules).

This is especially significant for a country like India, where the number of applicants is much higher than that of many other countries.

In effect, a country with a large number of skilled persons and a high population rate can experience a much longer line, even if the demand of the smaller country is significantly less.

Under the applicable family- and employment-based framework, the State Department has determined that the per-country cap is 28,862 for FY2026, with certain carryover provisions. India is one of the countries that have the oversubscribed-country rules in place.

EB-2 Is the Biggest Problem for Indian Professionals

The green card crisis in India is at the heart of the EB-2 category.

The EB-2 is typically for professionals with advanced degrees or those who have shown exceptional ability. The advanced-degree equivalent provision also applies to certain individuals who have at least 5 years of progressive work experience following their bachelor's degree.

EB-2 has been a significant pathway to permanent residency for many technology professionals and engineers, researchers, and other highly skilled Indians.

But, according to NFAP, an employment-based petitioner or labour certification applicant who filed a petition after January 2026 may be stuck in the EB-2 for possibly 179 years. The estimated wait time for the EB-3 category is about 38 years.

Additional government processing time is not included in these estimates.

The numbers thus reflect not only the processing lag, but also the structural imbalance between the number of people in line for a green card and the number of green cards that can eventually be issued.

EB-1 Offers a Shorter Queue, But Demand Is Rising

In general, the EB-1 category is for priority workers such as those with exceptional ability, outstanding professors and researchers, and some multinational executives and managers.

The NFAP analysis projects a significantly reduced likely wait time of approximately 4-5 years for Indian applicants as opposed to EB-2 and EB-3.

EB-1 is not pressure-proof, though.

According to the September 2026 Visa Bulletin, India's EB-1 final action date is October 15, 2022, with a caution that if the demand for visas and usage of the category is high, the category may become unavailable before the end of FY2026, once India's applicable limit is reached.

Indian candidates should not be complacent that if they move up in some preference category, then there will be no waiting.

September 2026 Visa Bulletin Shows Limited Relief

While the new Visa Bulletin offers some short-term relief for employment-based applicants from India, it offers very little.

The US Department of State has the following final action dates (FAC) for employment-based visas for India for September 2026:

The September bulletin also contains the employment-based dates for applications for India, which are December 1, 2023, for the EB-1 category; January 15, 2015, for the EB-2 category; and January 15, 2015, for the EB-3 category. The applicants should refer to USCIS instructions to decide which chart to use when completing an adjustment-of-status application.

The State Department has also issued a warning that if the annual or country-specific visa caps are reached, visa categories may become unavailable or retrogress.

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EB-2 India Has Already Hit Its FY2026 Limit

The situation took a turn for the worse in May 2026 when the United States State Department announced that all EB-2 immigrant visas for applicants with Indian nationalities had been allocated for FY2026.

Embassies and consulates were unable to grant further EB-2 immigrant visas to eligible Indian applicants for the rest of that fiscal year, the department said. The limits will be reset again at the start of FY2027 on October 1, 2026.

As in the September Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India remains unavailable, and the Bulletin states that the demand for this category could lead to additional retrogression or unavailability before the end of the fiscal year.

Backlog Increased Despite More Employment-Based Green Cards

It is worth noting that despite the significant number of green cards that the employment-based system received during the pandemic period, the backlog grew over the years. One of the most remarkable findings from the NFAP analysis is that the backlog has continued to increase even after the employment-based system was flooded with green cards throughout the pandemic period.

In fiscal years 2020 through 2024, some 980,460 employment-based green cards were issued, whereas 700,000 were anticipated. Much of the increase in the numbers, 280,460, was due to unused family-based immigrant visa numbers becoming available for use in the employment-based category.

However, the backlog in employment continued to grow.

The overall backlog for the three employment categories increased from an estimated 1,048,342 in April 2020 to 1,264,495 in December 2025.

This indicates that the problem is structural and that merely the reassignment of unused visa numbers may not suffice.

Labour Certification Adds More Delays

The green card application for many employment-based applicants requires PERM labour certification, which means that they must wait an additional step before an immigrant petition can proceed.

The time it takes for labour certification is estimated to be two to three years by NFAP. The US Department of Labor website revealed processing times of around 403 days for PERM applications that are under analyst review and 290 days for PERM applications that are under audit review as of August 2026, according to the NFAP analysis.

These extra processing times can further add to the visa processing timeline for an Indian professional who is already waiting in line for years for their visa number.

Impact on Indian Professionals and Their Families

The green card backlog impacts much more than an applicant's immigration status.

A large number of Indians are still in the USA on temporary work visas, especially H-1B, in anticipation of permanent residency. A long waiting period for the green card can thus lead to uncertainty regarding employment, relocation,n and long-term family planning.

A green card that takes years to finalise can complicate the employment situation for workers, who may also be changing jobs. Changing jobs can complicate the situation for workers who are also waiting for years for a green card to be issued.

Families can also be impacted, as spouses and children may be eligible to have immigration statuses linked to the principal applicant's temporary or permanent pathway.

The long queues may thus shape the decision to own a home, education for children, retirement plans, and whether families should stay in the United States or go back to India or move to another country.

What Could Reduce the Green Card Backlog?

The size of the backlog has brought changes to the immigration law in the United States back to the forefront.

Some policy options raised in the immigration picture generally are more green cards for employment-based immigration, the repeal or modification of per-country caps, the recovery of unused immigrant visa numbers, and the streamlining of employment-based processing.

NFAP has also said that these caps are antiquated and pose significant delays for highly skilled professionals from India and other nations with high applicant numbers.

But major alterations to the limits on immigration would likely need to be approved by the U.S. Congress.

As long as these changes don't take place, Indian professionals will remain reliant on the Visa Bulletin, the number of visas available, the priority date, and the rules for employment-based visas.

What Indian Green Card Applicants Should Know?

Existing Indians in the immigration system in the US should closely watch their priority dates andthe  Visa Bulletin.

A priority date typically is the date of the permanent labour certification filing or, in the absence of labour certification, the date on which the immigrant petition is filed.

Applicants should also be aware of the difference between a Final Action Date and a Date for Filing. These dates are for a variety of purposes, and having been eligible to file paperwork does not guarantee that a green card will be approved immediately.

The Visa Bulletin may advance, stay unchanged, or decline based on the demand and the number of visas available; applicants should check the current official guidance instead of relying on previous estimates.

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Green Card Backlog: What Happens Next?

Indian work visa holders are facing a rough patch in the near future.

The NFAP statistics reveal that the waiting time phenomenon is no longer an effective way to explain the situation. What an estimated 179-year EB-2 wait really means is that it is a warning to the mathematical sustainability of a system that is already in place, not that an individual applicant will literally wait for 179 years.

Meanwhile, the September 2026 Visa Bulletin states that EB-2 India is not eligible for final action and that EB-1 is in pressure and that EB-3 is extremely backlogged.

In the meantime, Indian professionals who join the line may have to wait an extraordinarily long time for their visas, unless the number of visas becomes significantly higher or the law regarding employment-based visas is altered by Congress.

Conclusion

The US green card backlog is one of the major long-term challenges for Indian professionals, as an estimated one million Indians are waiting in the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories. The potential 179-year EB-2 wait and 38-year EB-3 wait highlight the need to expand the capacity of the current employment-based immigration system to meet the demand. Unfortunately, there is not much relief in the newest September 2026 Visa Bulletin, as EB-2 India is now closed and EB-3 continues to have a priority date from 2014.

The US continues to be enriched by the talents of Indian professionals, but the long wait is raising a question of worry for the workers, families, and employers. If visa numbers are not increased significantly, country limits remain unchanged, and other factors of employment-based immigration law do not change, the backlog will likely continue to be one of the greatest challenges for skilled Indian workers to obtain permanent residence in America.

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