Key Highlights
The recent growth in reported employment of the American-born workers has been subject to wide celebration as a positive issue, but there is a more complex reality that is revealed after looking at the data in a closer sense. Although BLS statistics point to a vigorous growth in the employment of native-born workers and a proportional decrease in the number of the foreign-born workforce, this allegedly positive shift can be characterised as a statistical illusion. Far less than marks a permanent change in the American labour market, they are mostly the effect of statistical revisions and statistical peculiarities, the underlying economic situation having remained the same.
Understanding the Numbers: The BLS's Annual Adjustment
The chief of this statistical illusion is the annual readjustment by the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Each January, the BLS updates its population estimates so that its labour force data are in line with the most recent Census Bureau data. This is essential in ensuring the correctness of its models. The last adjustment was an extreme upward adjustment of the national population, mostly in order to reflect a large influx of immigration that took place between mid-2021and mid-2024. This new estimation of total population resulted in the recalibration of the demographic mix that was used in conducting surveys on the labour force.
The composition of the population of the United States has changed greatly, with several of the persons formerly included under 'foreign-born' reduced or reclassified as part of the native population to reflect the new Census data. This caused a reported drop of 1.9 million of the foreign-born work-age population and a seemingly impossible rise of 3.3 million of the native-born in the working-age group. The main lesson here is that it was not due to mass demographic movement but an under-the-counter adjustment of statistics. It is not a real-world fact of labour dynamics; it is a major change in accounting. The figures mutated on a worksheet and not in the population itself.
Also Read: Intracompany Transfer Visa USA
The Role of Underreporting and Survey Biases
In addition to the annual changes, the other factor that makes the data misleading is the issue of underreporting. Over the years, there was a possible enumeration error of foreign-born residents in the household surveys done by the BLS every month. This direction that allegedly gained strength after the presidential election of 2016 is probably motivated by a fear of some immigrant groups of disclosing their personal data to governmental services.
Such underreporting introduces a huge bias in the surveys. When migrants are under-represented in the sample, the final figures become more than the real numbers of natives and become less in the case of migrants. The alleged fall in the foreign-born workforce, thus, does not necessarily indicate any leakages of people out of the country and the labour market but rather their reduced participation in the survey itself. The changes are demographic in nature, though, since they are expressed statistically by individual reports, thus depending on social-political factors which may influence the reporting of such a demographic shift.
The Bigger Picture: Immigration as the Engine of Growth
Amidst the statistical noise, the underlying reality concerning the labour market in the United States remains, namely that the only possible way forward in terms of growth in the working-age population is through immigration. The supply of American-born workers is failing to grow rapidly to meet the economic demands in the country, as more people are ageing and the birth rates are declining. Demographics are an irresistible force, and through the remainder of this decade, the native-born labour pool will remain stagnant in contribution.
A serious headwind to economic growth would be the imposition of any attempt to materially restrain or reverse the direction of immigration. Immigrants not only help the country to overcome acute shortages of labour in different fields such as agriculture, medicine and technology, but they also facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship. They are also an important source of new customers and taxpayers to help sustain a social safety net that is showing signs of falling under the pressure of an ageing population. The story of an emerging native-born labour force unwittingly obscures this important fact.
Also Read: How Many Types of Visa in USA? New Full Expert Guide
No Improvement in Job Prospects for Native-Born Workers
It is pertinent to make an important observation that this statistical rearrangement has not created any tangible employment opportunities for native-born workers. Although the job gains have been mentioned, the rate of employment of the prime-age workers (workers between 25 and 54) has tended to be stagnant or even decline among both native-born and foreign-born labourers. What this means is that the supposed boom has not brought enough of a change to the overall health of the labour market and fewer opportunities to the American-born population. The challenges that lie beneath the surface of the competitive job market and the slowing economy are still there, and the statistical change has not been able to improve the situation.
Also Read: Difference Between B1 and B2 Visa USA: Experts New Guide
Conclusion
The recent statistics of American-born employee counts are depicting the American-born employees wrongly as having a boom. The sharp increase is largely due to an adjustment made by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) to adjust its figures in accordance with new population figures. Demographics have not evidenced an actual shift of population, but a shift in the way surveys count the segmentation of people in a demographic. In addition, the employment levels of workers of prime age remain stagnant, and this means that there is no substantial change that has occurred in the employment of workers of prime age. In the end, the data itself acts as a form of distraction to what happens to be the underlying function of immigration as the driver of growth in the U.S. working-age population. The actual economic picture is that the future health of the American economy depends on immigration. Visit TerraTern to know more!
