The Future of US Immigration: Trump Administration's New Push for 'Merit-Based' System

Written by

Mynaz Altaf

Fact check by

Divyansh Chaudhari

Updated on

Aug 31,2025

The Future of US Immigration: Trump Administration's New Push for 'Merit-Based' System - TerraTern

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A major overhaul of immigration policies in the United States is on the verge of happening, and the Trump administration is already giving indications of a comprehensive overhaul, both in the H-1B visa program and the green card process. This represents a clear turnaround, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, from a long-held system that was previously based on lotteries to one that focuses more on wages, skills, and financial investment. The proposals with a Gold Card for the rich investor and an H-1B test to be based on the wage are meant to bring those whom the administration terms as the best people, and save American jobs.

Nonetheless, the changes have elicited a lot of debate and concern regarding the effect they may have on the industries that mostly depend on foreign talent, especially professionals in countries such as India, leading to H-1B allocations. The new policies reflect a definite attention to bringing wealth and high skill on board, an approach that would fundamentally transform the area of professional and economic immigration in the years ahead.

The Revamping of the H-1B Visa Program: A Change to a Wage-Based Program.

Over the years, the H-1B visa programme has been a pillar of US immigration of skilled foreign workers and is mostly employed by the technology and healthcare industries. When applications surpass the yearly limit, the existing system distributes the scarce array of visas by means of a lottery-like system. Criticism has been on the inability of this model to prioritise the highly skilled or highly paid applicants. The changes proposed by the Trump administration will fix this perceived blemish with the introduction of a wage-based selection process.

Also Read: US Immigration: Everything You Should Know Is Here

A New System for a New Era

The new system would have substituted the lottery with a system that puts the higher-earning applicants in the first place. This change has been facilitated by a draft rule that has been passed by the US Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. The system will prioritise petitions according to wage levels, perhaps in a four-level system, with the visas received first by those in the highest-paying positions.

The action is consistent with the Buy American, Hire American policy of the administration that aims to make sure that H-1B visas are utilised to complement, rather than to replace, American workers. The administration states that it will help attract and keep the most gifted people in the world and will help curb what is seen as an abuse of the system by companies that use it to recruit cheaper manpower.

This shift has far-reaching implications. As much as it might favour well-paid and experienced employees, it might significantly cut the opportunities of entry-level employees and newly graduated persons, who normally begin at the lower wage levels. This may pose a significant obstacle to many Indian professionals as they start their careers and startups and non-profits that may have thinner budgets and are not in a position to pay high-quality salaries.

Introducing the 'Gold Card' for Wealthy Investors

The central point in the new immigration drive by the administration is the launching of a new programme called the Gold Card. This programme, according to Lutnick, who is the commerce secretary, is a new way of leading wealthy foreigners to permanent residence. The Gold Card proposal is a more straightforward deal as compared to the current EB-5 investor visa, which involves a large investment in a company that generates a specified number of American jobs.

A Pathway for the Ultra-Wealthy

The Gold Card would confer permanent residence to those who are ready to invest at least five million dollars in the United States. As Lutnick insists, this programme has already attracted much attention, and up to 250,000 individuals are said to be in line to join the programme. In the event that the program is implemented, there is a potential that it would inject about 1.25 trillion into the US economy in terms of investment. The proposed visa will be a drastic difference compared to the past models because it focuses on capital investment rather than creating direct employment opportunities.

This pay-to-stay approach has been controversial, and critics claim that this system offers a two-tier system of immigration where the rich are the main factor to get in. On the one hand, the Gold Card may provide a lifeline to high-net-worth people in countries where the number of applicants for the green card is long; on the other hand, it does not do much to solve the talent shortages in certain areas such as technology, which would require the skills of professionals who may not afford to invest the required amount of money, which is five million dollars.

Also Read: US Visitor Visa B1/B2

The Implications for Indian Professionals and the Tech Industry

The suggested transformations have a special significance to Indian professionals, who regularly represent the greatest number of H-1B visa holders. An example of this is the case in fiscal year 2023, where over 72 per cent of the H-1B petitions submitted by Indian nationals were approved. Any major alterations in the programme, a suspension or a reduction in entry-level visas may have a far-reaching effect on this group.

A Domino Effect on Global Talent and Innovation

Among the most significant dangers that have been mentioned by critics is the fact that a tighter US immigration policy will lead to a brain drain to other nations that have a more liberal immigration policy, including Canada or European nations. This might be detrimental to American firms that use this talent to staff key positions and keep them competitive in the international market. The long-term outcome may include a decline in innovation and the alteration of the relationships within the US labour force. In the case of American firms, a stricter H-1B might also make the companies consider adding more outsourcing or remote employment in India, thereby eventually creating fewer employment opportunities on American soil. This possible future highlights the contradictory character of the immigration policy.

Another issue that the proposed reforms bring into question is the future of STEM education and the careers of foreign students in the US. When entry-level and visa opportunities are made harder to obtain, this may demotivate international students from continuing to obtain higher education in the US, which in turn will affect the academic institutions and research in the US.

Also Read: How Many Types of Visas are in the USA? New Full Expert Guide

Conclusion

The new immigration plans of the Trump administration are challenging and radical changes in US policy, and the emphasis is on bringing in wealth and high-technology skills. The shift to an H-1B wage system and the creation of a multi-million dollar Gold Card for investors are indicators that we have moved beyond job-creation-based and lottery models of the past. Although the advocates believe that such changes will invite the most talented employees and shield American jobs, critics fear unintended consequences such as a two-tier system that will favour the rich, less foreign talent, and loss of global competitiveness of US firms. The complete effect of these proposals on the US economy, its industries, and the process of talent flow across borders is yet to be assessed as these suggestions pass through the regulatory procedure.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How does the proposed wage-based system fundamentally differ from the current system of the H-1B lottery?

The existing H-1B visa scheme operates on a computer-generated lottery basis, whereby the applications are chosen randomly in case the demand surpasses the yearly quota. This approach does not consider the level of skills, salary or nature of employment. The given wage-based system, in its turn, would remove the lottery and require applicants to be ranked in accordance with the salaries of their jobs. This would imply that jobs that have higher remuneration proposals will have a better opportunity to be passed with the aim of absorbing highly skilled, experienced and better-paid foreign workers. This is supposed to be a measure against fears that the lottery system would result in the entry of less skilled labourers at lower wage rates, which is seen as a threat to American labour.

What are the differences between the new and the current EB-5 investor visa, the so-called Gold Card?

The new proposal of the Gold Card is comparable to the current EB-5 investor visa in the sense that it provides a route to permanent residency for foreign investors. Nevertheless, two major differences exist. The EB-5 programme entails a minimum amount of investment in an enterprise in the United States, which will produce a certain number of jobs, normally at least 10 full-time jobs. The Gold card, on the other hand, would require much more investment, of 5 million dollars; however, it would not have a job-creation requirement. This causes the Gold Card to be more of a direct pay-to-stay system, which aims at drawing in wealth and not creating jobs. Such a difference may carry significant ramifications, since it eliminates the direct economic advantage of job creation that the EB-5 programme was intended to motivate.

How might these changes affect Indian professionals who are already in the US?

The changes proposed might affect the Indian professionals significantly since they are the most dominant in the number of H-1B visa holders. H-1B visa holders currently in the US may have a harder time finding alternate employment and obtaining another visa once their new employer fails to pay them the required higher wage. It may also have an impact on individuals on work visas awaiting a green card, since in a more restrictive immigration environment, their wait time would be extended even more than it is now. Also, for the entry-level workers, the new wage-based system may render it significantly harder to secure their first H-1B visa, which may mean that they will be forced out of the US once the student visas run out.

Is a wage-based H-1B system detrimental to the US technological sector?

US tech employees depend on skilled foreign workers to occupy vacant critical positions and initiate innovation. The H-1B system based on wage may cause the industry some damage as it puts entry-level talent and startups at an entry barrier. A great number of innovative companies and the ones that are just starting might lack the capital to afford the high salaries, which would be prioritised under the new pattern. This may hamper their capability to attract the talent they require to develop and compete. It might also cause brain drain, with the person who might be a professional yet fails to get a US visa opting to work in a country that has a more relaxed immigration policy, decreasing the competitive advantage of the US in the world technological competition.

Why is the administration doing such immigration reforms?

The reasoning behind these reforms in the mind of the administration is that a more merit-based immigration system will benefit the US economy, as it will save American jobs. Through the promotion of those with high wages and huge financial assets, the administration feels that it will be able to have the best and that there will not be competition with foreign workers who may be seeking positions with lower wages. The reforms have been regarded as a means of fixing what the administration considers as flaws in the existing system, like the perceived scam of the H-1B lottery and acceptance of recipients of the green card at lower than average wages. The new policies will be aimed at harmonising immigration and the national economic interests.